Lucent Technologies CentreVu Release 3 Version 5 Forecast User manual

585-215-825
Comcode 107876203
Issue 1
December 1996
CentreVu Call Management System
Release 3 Version 5
Forecast

Copyright 1997, Lucent Technologies
All Rights Reserved
Printed in U.S.A.
Notice
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complete and accurate at the time of printing. However, information is
subject to change.
Your Responsibility for Your System’s Security
Toll fraud is the unauthorized use of your telecommunications system
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You and your system manager are responsible for the security of your
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Issue 1, December 1996
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Table of Contents
CentreVu Call Management System
Release 3 Version 5
Forecast
CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast 585-215-825
iii
Preface
General Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . P-1
Conventions Used in This Document . . . . . . . . . . . P-2
Related Documents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . P-3
CentreVu CMS Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . P-3
CentreVu Supervisor Publications . . . . . . . . . . . P-4
Other Useful Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . P-4
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-1
What Is Forecasting? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-1
Purpose of Forecast Subsystem . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-2
Types of Forecasting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-3
Getting Started with Forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-4
Controlling Forecast Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-4
Using Forecast Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-4
Data Used for Split/Skill Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . 1-5
Data Points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-5
Split/Skill Forecast Methods. . . . . . . . . . . . 1-6
Start-Up Tasks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-9
How to Use the Forecast Subsystem. . . . . . . . . . . . 1-10
Forecast Menus. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-12
Relationships to Other Subsystems . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-14
User Permissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-14
Read Permission . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-14
Read and Write Permissions . . . . . . . . . . . 1-14
Dictionary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-15
Timetables/ Shortcuts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-15
System Setup . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-15
Forecast Administration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-1
General Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-1
Data Storage Allocation Administration. . . . . . . . . . . 2-2
Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-2

CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast 585-215-825
iv
Things to Know Before You Start . . . . . . . . . . . 2-2
Prerequisite System Administration . . . . . . . . . . 2-3
Data Storage Allocation Window. . . . . . . . . . . . 2-3
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-3
Field/Action List Usage . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-3
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-4
Call Handling Profiles Administration . . . . . . . . . . . 2-6
Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-6
Things to Know Before You Start . . . . . . . . . . . 2-6
Prerequisite System Administration . . . . . . . . . . 2-8
Call Handling Profiles Window . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-8
Field/Action List Usage . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-9
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-9
Copy Window . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-10
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-10
Get Contents Window . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-11
Field/Action List Usage . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-11
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-12
Current Day Configuration Administration . . . . . . . . . . 2-14
Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-14
Things to Know Before You Start . . . . . . . . . . . 2-15
Prerequisite System Administration . . . . . . . . . . 2-16
Current Day Configuration Window. . . . . . . . . . . 2-16
Field/Action List Usage . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-17
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-17
Costs Profile Administration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-20
Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-20
Things to Know Before You Start . . . . . . . . . . . 2-20
Costs Profile Window . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-21
Field/Action List Usage . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-21
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-22
Copy Window . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-22
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-22
Get Contents Window . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-23
Field/Action List Usage . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-23
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-24
Trunk Group Profile Administration . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-25
Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-25
Things to Know Before You Start . . . . . . . . . . . 2-25
Prerequisite System Administration . . . . . . . . . . 2-25
Trunk Group Profile Window . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-26
Field/Action List Usage . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-26
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-27
Forecast Manager Administration. . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-28
Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-28
Things to Know Before You Start . . . . . . . . . . . 2-29
Prerequisite System Administration . . . . . . . . . . 2-30
Forecast Manager Window . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-31
Field/Action List Usage . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-31

CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast 585-215-825
v
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-31
Special Days Administration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-38
Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-38
Things to Know Before You Start . . . . . . . . . . . 2-38
Prerequisite System Administration . . . . . . . . . . 2-39
Special Days Window . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-39
Field/Action List Usage . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-39
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-40
Call Volume/Agents Forecast Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-1
General Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-1
Guidelines for Call Volume/Agents Forecast Reports . . . . . . 3-2
Current Day Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-5
Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-5
Prerequisite System Administration . . . . . . . . . . 3-6
Current Day Input Window. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-6
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-7
Current Day Forecast Report Example. . . . . . . . . . 3-8
Longterm Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-12
Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-12
Things to Know About Report Data. . . . . . . . . . . 3-12
Prerequisite System Administration . . . . . . . . . . 3-12
Longterm Report Input Window . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-13
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-13
Longterm Forecast Report Example . . . . . . . . . . 3-17
Financial Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-20
Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-20
Prerequisite System Administration . . . . . . . . . . 3-21
Financial Input Window. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-21
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-21
Financial Forecast Report Example. . . . . . . . . . . 3-25
Intraday Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-28
Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-28
Things to Know About Report Data. . . . . . . . . . . 3-28
Prerequisite System Administration . . . . . . . . . . 3-29
Intraday Input Window . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-30
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-30
Intraday Forecast Report Example . . . . . . . . . . . 3-32
Special Day Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-35
Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-35
Things to Know About Report Data. . . . . . . . . . . 3-35
Prerequisite System Administration . . . . . . . . . . 3-36
Special Day Input Window. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-36
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-37
Special Day Forecast Report Description . . . . . . . . . 3-39
Hypothetical Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-41

CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast 585-215-825
vi
Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-41
Copy Historical Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-42
Things to Know Before You Start . . . . . . . . . . 3-42
Prerequisite System Administration . . . . . . . . . 3-42
Copy Historical Data Window . . . . . . . . . . . 3-43
Edit and View Hypothetical Data . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-44
Things to Know Before You Start . . . . . . . . . . 3-44
Prerequisite System Administration . . . . . . . . . 3-44
Edit Values Window . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-45
Change the Interval Length of Hypothetical Data . . . . . 3-46
Hypothetical Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-51
Prerequisite System Administration . . . . . . . . . . 3-52
Hypothetical Report Input Window . . . . . . . . . . . 3-52
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-53
Hypothetical Forecast Report Example . . . . . . . . . 3-55
Hypothetical Financial Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-58
Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-58
Prerequisite System Administration . . . . . . . . . . 3-59
Financial Report Input Window . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-59
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-59
Hypothetical Financial Forecast Report Example . . . . . . 3-62
Requirement Forecast Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-1
General Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-1
Guidelines for Requirement Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-2
Agent Positions Required Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-3
Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-3
Things to Know About Report Data. . . . . . . . . . . 4-3
Agent Positions Required Input Window . . . . . . . . . 4-4
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-4
Agent Positions Required Report Example . . . . . . . . 4-6
Trunks Required Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-8
Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-8
Things to Know About Report Data. . . . . . . . . . . 4-8
Prerequisite System Administration . . . . . . . . . . 4-9
Trunks Required Input Window . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-9
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-9
Trunks Required Report Example . . . . . . . . . . . 4-11
Trunk Performance Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-1
General Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-1
Guidelines for the Trunk Performance Report . . . . . . . 5-1
Things to Know About Report Data. . . . . . . . . . . 5-2
Prerequisite System Administration . . . . . . . . . . 5-3
Trunk Performance Input Window. . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-4
Field Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-4

CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast 585-215-825
vii
Trunk Performance Report Example . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-6
How the Forecast System Generates Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-1
General Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-1
Call Volume/Agents Forecast Reports . . . . . . . . . . . 6-2
Algorithm for Current and Seasonal Data Points . . . . . . 6-2
Current Data Points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-2
Example 1: Current Data Points . . . . . . . . . . 6-4
Seasonal Data Points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-5
Example 2: Seasonal Data Points . . . . . . . . . . 6-6
Algorithm for Forecast Calls Carried . . . . . . . . . . 6-7
Forecast Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-7
Algorithm for FCC Intraday . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-12
Algorithm for FCC Special Days . . . . . . . . . . 6-13
Algorithm for Number of Agents Required . . . . . . . . 6-14
Algorithm for Estimated Margin . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-15
Requirement Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-16
Algorithm for Agent Positions Required . . . . . . . . . 6-16
Algorithm for Trunks Required . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-17
Trunk Performance Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-19
Algorithm for Trunk Performance . . . . . . . . . . . 6-19
Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . GL-1
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IN-1

CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast 585-215-825
viii

Preface CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast 585-215-825
General Information P-1
Preface
General Information 0
The CentreVu™ Call Management System Release 3 Version 5 Forecast
(585-215-825) document is written for CentreVu Call Management System
(CMS) administrators and split/skill supervisors who are responsible for
administering and reporting forecast data.
This document is organized as follows:
●“Preface,” describes style conventions and lists
CentreVu CMS
documents and other related documents.
●Chapter 1, “Introduction,” describes the Forecast subsystem, purpose
of forecasting, types of forecasting, guidelines, start-up tasks, and the
best order for using the Forecasting subsystem and this document.
●Chapter 2, “Forecast Administration,” describes the start-up tasks you
must do before you can get forecast reports.
●Chapter 3, “Call Volume/Agents Forecast Reports,” describes how a
call volume/agent forecast predicts the number of calls a split/skill will
receive (Forecast calls carried). Also, it describes how many
agents will be required to handle those calls (Number of agents
required). Most forecast reports are call volume or agent reports.
●Chapter 4, “Requirement Forecast Reports,” describes the Agent
Positions Required and Trunks Required reports. These two reports can
show you, given specific call handling objectives, how many calls your
call center can handle.
●Chapter 5, “Trunk Performance Report,” describes how this report
estimates, at the busiest intervals in a specified range of historical
dates, what the usage rate and blocking percentages were for the
selected trunk group(s). This report also shows how many trunks the
trunk group(s) would have needed during the busiest intervals to meet
predetermined objectives you have set for your call center.
●Chapter 6, “How the Forecast System Generates Data,” describes the
algorithms that CMS uses to predict agent staffing and trunk capacity
needs.

Preface CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast 585-215-825
Conventions Used in This Document P-2
Conventions Used in This Document 0
The following conventions are used throughout this document:
a. INFORMIX is a registered trademark of Informix Software, Inc.
Related document
callouts
Include the book title, in italics, and the
document number (if an Lucent Technologies
publication). For example, “See the
CentreVu™ Call Management System R3V5
Custom Reports
(585-215-822) document for
more information.”
Courier font Designates a word or phrase quoted directly
from the
CentreVu system. For example, see
the Report destination: field.
Also designates an
INFORMIX
atable name.
For example, see the csplit table.
Courier bold font Designates something you enter into the
system. For example, enter an x next to
Printer,Terminal, or File.
“Chapter Names” Are always in quotes. For example, see
Chapter 2, “Forecast Administration,” for more
information.
italic
Highlights references to file names and
directories. For example, see
/cms .
Subsystem References Are always initial capitalized. For example,
set access permissions for
CentreVu users from
the User Permissions subsystem.
Window Titles Are always capitalized.

Preface CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast 585-215-825
Related Documents P-3
Related Documents 0
There are many documents that can help you use the CentreVu CMS
software to its maximum capability. The most important ones are listed
below.
CentreVu CMS
Publications 0
The following documents, relevant to CentreVu CMS, have also been
published:
●
CentreVu™ Call Management System Release 3 Version 5
Administration (
585-215-820)
●
CentreVu™ Call Management System Release 3 Version 5 Real-
Time and Historical Reports (
585-215-821)
●
CentreVu™ Call Management System Release 3 Version 5 Custom
Reports (
585-215-822)
●
CentreVu™ Call Management System Release 3 Version 5
Change Description (
585-215-823)
●
CentreVu™ Call Management System Release 3 Version 5
External Call History Interface (
585-215-824)
●
CentreVu™ Call Management System Release 3 Version 5
Upgrades and Migration (
585-215-826)
●
CentreVu™ Call Management System Release 3 Version 5
Sun
®
SPARCserver™ Computers Installation and Maintenance
(
585-215-827)
●
CentreVu™ Call Management System Release 3 Version 5
Sun
®
SPARCserver™ Computers Connectivity Diagram
(
585-215-828)
●
CentreVu™ Call Management System Release 3 Version 5
Documentation CD-ROM (585-215-891).

Preface CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast 585-215-825
Related Documents P-4
CentreVu
Supervisor
Publications 0
The following documents, relevant to CentreVu Supervisor, have also
been published:
●
Lucent Technologies CentreVu™ Supervisor Version 5 User Guide
(
585-215-829)
●
Lucent Technologies CentreVu™ Supervisor Version 5 Installation
and Getting Started (
585-215-830)
●
Lucent Technologies CentreVu™ Supervisor Version 5 Report
Designer (
585-215-831)
●
Lucent Technologies CentreVu™ Supervisor and Report Designer
Version 5 Change Description
(585-215-832).
Other Useful
Publications 0
At times you may need to reference other documents. You need to know
where the documentation that was sent with the following is kept:
●Switch
●Terminals
●Printers
●
UNIX
*system of
Solaris
†
system.
*UNIX is a registered trademark in the United States and other countries, licensed exclusively through X/Open
Corporation.
†Solaris is a registered trademark of Sun Microsystems.

Introduction CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast 585-215-825
What Is Forecasting? 1-1
1 Introduction
What Is Forecasting? 1
Forecasting is the method used to estimate, calculate, or predict the staffing
and capacity for specified time periods in the future. With forecasting, you
can predict the following:
●Number of calls that you could receive during a specified time period
●Number of agents that you will need to handle a specified volume of
calls (for example, you can vary the input parameters for agent
occupancy, average speed of answer, average agent service time, and
service level to predict different needs for your call center)
●Number of trunks that you will need
●Trunk performance.
For example, with forecasting you can look at your call volume for the last
four Mondays to predict your call volume for the next Monday. Then, using
your assigned objectives, you can show the number of agents and trunks
that are required during each intrahour interval next Monday.
Note Before you begin using the Forecast subsystem or reading this
document, see the “Glossary” at the end of this document for the
meaning of forecasting terms.

Introduction CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast 585-215-825
Purpose of Forecast Subsystem 1-2
Purpose of Forecast Subsystem 1
Use the Forecast subsystem to do the following:
●Provide you with the estimated number of agents and the number of
trunks required for each intrahour interval.
●Set objectives for Automatic Call Distribution (ACD) activities
involving agents, split(s)/skill(s), and trunk/trunk groups for which
you want to get forecasting information about upcoming dates or
time periods. You do this using the Forecast Administration
windows.
●Generate reports using historical data that predict call volume and
agent requirements for:
— Today (Current Day report)
— Any day up to 35 days in the future (Longterm report)
— A given profit margin plus how many calls you can expect for a
split/skill, and how many agents you will need to handle those
calls for any day up to 35 days in the future (Financial report)
— The remaining part of the current day (Intraday report)
— A special day, for example, a holiday or a special promotion
day (Special Days report).
Other reports also provide information about agent positions
required, trunks required, and trunk performance. You do this using
the Forecast Report windows.
●Predict the staffing requirements of your call center in hypothetical
situations.
●Increase profits by predicting when to reduce surplus labor.
●Generate reports that justify increased staffing based on objectives
and predicted call volume.
●Perform careful scheduling and planning to optimize productivity.
●Estimate how many calls a given number of agents can handle per
intrahour interval.

Introduction CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast 585-215-825
Types of Forecasting 1-3
●Estimate how many calls can be carried by a given number of trunks
per intrahour interval.
●Estimate a marginfor predicting the difference between call revenue
and call costs for each intrahour interval.
●Gather forecast calls carried information for each intrahour interval
in Special Day reports.
Types of Forecasting 1
The Forecast subsystem allows you to set up the desired report
prerequisites through Administration windows. After you complete the
setup procedures, you can run various forecast reports. You can either
generate reports basedon historical data, or you can generate reports for
hypothetical situations.
Forecast reports fall into three basic categories:
●Call Volume/Agent (see Chapter 3, “Call volume/Agents Forecast
Reports”)
●Requirement (see Chapter 4, “Requirement Forecast Reports”)
●Trunk Performance (see Chapter 5, “Trunk Performance Report”).
Note
Forecasting is a separately purchased feature of CentreVu
CMS. If you have not purchased Forecasting, the Forecast
MainMenu option does not appear. If you wish to purchase
Forecasting, call your Lucent Technologies account executive.

Introduction CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast 585-215-825
Getting Started with Forecasts 1-4
Getting Started with Forecasts 1
Before you start using the Forecast subsystem, you must do the
following:
1. Read this chapter before you start.
2. Determine the type of forecasting you want to use.
3. Complete the start-up tasks for Administration.
4. Select the report from the menu options.
5. Determine which method (algorithm) you want to use.
6. Fill in the required report data entry fields.
7. Run the report.
Controlling
Forecast Results 1
You can control the types of prediction results you receive in forecasting
depending on how you enter information in the windows or which method
of forecasting you select. You can usually expect to do some additional
adjustments to your initial forecasts to get the results you desire.
The following variables can control the prediction results:
●Historical data that the system retrieves
●Date(s) that you enter
●Days (or Data Points) that you select
●Trending patterns in the data the system retrieves
●Trending method of forecasting that you use
●Interval time that you select
●Objectives that you can enter or that vary.
Using Forecast
Reports 1
To assist you in using forecast reports, the following chapters provide you
with information for producing reports:
●“Using Call Volume/Agents Forecast Reports” (see Chapter 3)
●“Using Requirement Reports” (see Chapter 4)
●“Using the Trunk Performance Report” (see Chapter 5).

Introduction CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast 585-215-825
Getting Started with Forecasts 1-5
Data Used for
Split/Skill
Forecasts 1
To forecast calls carried to a split/skill, CentreVu CMS uses historical
intrahour interval data. Specifically,
CentreVu CMS uses the sum of ACD
and abandoned callsthat the split/skill received in each interval.This sum
of ACD and abandoned calls is called the Number of calls
carried.
Data Points 1The number of calls carried normally comes from the intrahour intervals
from 4 specific days in the past. These 4 days that supply input data are
called data points. The data points may be either 1 day apart or 1 week
apart:
●One-day-apart data points are always the 4 sequential days
immediately preceding the current day. Look at the example in
Figure 1-1. If the current day is Monday, May 5, the data points are
May 1, 2, 3, and 4.
.
Figure 1-1: Sample Data Points—One Day Apart
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Note
One-day-apart data points should not be used if they include
days that had no activity. For example, in Figure 1-1, two of
the data points fall on Saturday and Sunday. If the call center
is normally closed on weekends, a forecast with 1-day-apart
data points would be skewed.

Introduction CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast 585-215-825
Getting Started with Forecasts 1-6
●One-week-apart data points are days in each of the preceding 4
weeks and are the same day of the week as the forecasted day.
Look at the example in Figure 1-2. If the forecasted day is Thursday,
June 5, and today is Wednesday, May 28, the data points would be
the Thursdays on May 1, 18, 15, and 22.
Figure 1-2: Sample Data Points—One Week Apart
For some types of split/skill forecasts, you specify at run time which type
of data points
CentreVu CMS should use. For the Current Day and
Intraday forecasts,
CentreVu CMS automatically uses 1-week-apart data
points.
Split/Skill Forecast
Methods 1
CentreVu CMS uses the data from the data points in different ways,
depending on which of the four forecast methods you select. The four
available forecast methods are as follows:
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Note The Special Day Forecast uses data from only the last
occurrence of a special day, not from data points.
No Trending
CentreVu CMS finds the average number of
calls, per interval, in the data points.
Current Trending
CentreVu CMS finds thetrend ofthe numberof
calls in the data points. Thus, if the number of
calls in the most recent data points indicates
that the number of calls is going down, the
calls forecasted will be lower than they would
have been forecasted with the “no trending”
method.

Introduction CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast 585-215-825
Getting Started with Forecasts 1-7
Expected Calls You enter the number of calls you expect for
the forecasted day.
CentreVu CMS checks the
data points to find the percentage of historical
calls that arrived in each intrahour interval.
CentreVu CMS then distributes your expected
calls among the forecast day’s intervals using
those same percentages.
Seasonal Trending
CentreVu CMS finds the average number of
calls per interval in the current data points.
Based on an earlier seasonal trend base date
(a seasonal trend base date is a date in the
past that you think is similar to the current day),
CentreVu CMS also finds the average number
of calls per day in a parallel set of data points
(these averages use the data weights).
CentreVu CMS then scales up or down the
average found in the current data points
according to the ratio of the seasonal trend
base date to the seasonal average. Thus, with
seasonal trending,
CentreVu CMS uses data
for a seasonal set of data points to determine
the data in the current set of data points.
Look at the example in Figure 1-3. Since data
points for today, May 28, are 1 week apart,
when you select a seasonal trend base date of
1 year (52 weeks) ago,
CentreVu CMS
automatically uses data points for last year
from the base date that are also 1 week apart.

Introduction CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast 585-215-825
Getting Started with Forecasts 1-8
Figure 1-3: Sample Data Points—Seasonal Trending
For most split/skill forecasts, you must select the forecast method(s) at
the time you run the report. However, for the Current Day and Intraday
forecasts, you assign the forecast method in the Current Day
Configuration window (see Chapter 2, “Forecast Administration—
Current Day Configuration Administration”). The Special Day Forecast
uses only Expected Calls and a variation of No Trending.
If you want a trend based on historical data, you must define adequate
storage. See Chapter 2, “Forecast Administration—Data Storage
Allocation Administration.”
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= seasonal data points
= season day
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Note For a detailed explanation of these forecast methods, see “How
the Forecast System Generates Data” in Chapter 6.